Buckinghamshire’s demography, 2016

By Buckinghamshire Business First
28 June, 2017

Buckinghamshire’s population rose by 6,320 or 1.2 per cent in 2016 to reach 534,720.

This was the 4th highest rate of increase among the 38 Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs), ranking 2nd among the 27 county council areas. There are now 342 residents for every km2 in Buckinghamshire, up from 306 in 2001.

Natural change made the largest contribution to the increase, with 2,146 more births than deaths, ahead of international migration (2,145) and internal migration (1,839). Across the UK, international migration added 335,651 residents (37.6 per cent going to London), with natural change adding 192,840, to give a total increase of 538,020.

Table 1: Demography, 2016

Source: MYPE, ONS, 2017

Aylesbury Vale’s population has risen by 10.4 per cent since 2011, rising by 18,233 residents. This was the 5th highest rate of growth of any local authority in Great Britain and the 27th highest absolute growth. The 4,406 increase recorded in Aylesbury Vale in 2016 is the highest increase recorded in a single year, taking the district’s share of Buckinghamshire’s increase to 69.7 per cent in 2016 and 64.7 per cent since 2010.

In 2016, Buckinghamshire’s net in-migration from other parts of the UK stood at 1,829. The county has net internal in-migration for all five year cohorts except 15-19 years olds, where the county saw out-migration of 2,150 in 2016 (or 6.8 per cent of all resident in that age range), and among those aged 50-79 (net out-migration of 810). Out-migration is particularly marked among 19 year olds, with 2,321 leaving the county in 2016, the most common destinations being the university towns of Nottingham (157), Oxford (116), Southampton (115), Birmingham (105), Coventry (76) and Portsmouth (71). For those aged 50-79 the top destinations are dominated by neighbouring districts but also include Scotland, Cornwall, Wiltshire and West Dorset.

Chart 1: Buckinghamshire’s net migration by age, 2016

Source: MYPE, ONS, 2017

At 20.3 per cent, residents aged 0-15 make up a higher share of Buckinghamshire’s population than in any other county council, ranking 6th among LEPs. In 2016, the number of Buckinghamshire residents in this age group rose by 1.4 per cent (1,466), the 4th highest rate of growth among county council areas, ranking 8th among LEPs. Residents aged 65 and over rose by 3.0 per cent, to rank 6th among LEPs, with Buckinghamshire having the highest rate of growth among residents in both their 80s and 90s among both county councils and LEPs at 3.4 and 6.2 per cent respectively.

Despite rising by 0.9 per cent in 2016, the 6th highest rate of increase among LEPs and county councils, working age residents now make up just 61.3 per cent of the total, the lowest share on record, below the national share to rank 12th among county council areas.

Compared to the rest of the country, Buckinghamshire has an under-representation of people in their 20s and 30s, with a share of residents in those cohorts 21.8 and 6.4 per cent below the national level, with residents in their 60s also underrepresented. Residents aged 90 and over are the most over-represented, with 9.5 per cent more than across the country as a whole. The next most over-represented are residents in their 40s despite their number having fallen in the last year. However, the fall of 0.9 per cent in residents in their 40s was the strongest growth recorded across the country for both LEPs and county council areas, with the national population of people in their 40s falling 1.5 per cent, or 137,897. The 40s remains Buckinghamshire’s 2nd most populous cohort behind 50s, with the county’s median age now standing at a record high of 41.8 years.