Buckinghamshire’s demography, 2017

Buckinghamshire’s population rose by 2,862 in 2017 to reach 535,918.

At 0.5 per cent, the county’s annual rate of increase was the lowest since 2009, ranking only 25th highest among the 38 Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) and 19th among the 27 county council areas.  Buckinghamshire’s median age now stands at a new high of 42.0 years. 

Natural change made the largest contribution to the increase, with 1,662 more births than deaths, ahead of international migration (1,023) and internal migration (208).  At 3,482, international in-migration to Buckinghamshire fell below the average since 2002 (3,584) to its lowest since 2014.  However, despite rising slightly compared to 2016, at 2,459, international out-migration was well below the average (2,788).  Net international migration was above one thousand for a fourth successive year, well above the 796 average.

Table 1: Demography, 2017

Source: MYPE, ONS, 2018

Aylesbury Vale’s population has risen by 10.4 per cent since 2012, an increase of 18,420 residents.  This has been the 7th highest rate of growth among the 380 local authorities in Great Britain and the 27th highest absolute growth.  The 3,340 increase estimated in Aylesbury Vale in 2017 represented a 1.7 per cent increase in the district’s population, the 15th highest rise in the country.  In contrast, the rest of the county saw its population fall by 478 or 0.1 per cent.  Over the last five years, Aylesbury Vale has accounted for 73.9 per cent of Buckinghamshire’s increase.

In 2017, Buckinghamshire’s net in-migration from other parts of the UK stood at 208.  The county has net internal in-migration for all five year cohorts from 0 to 44, except 15-19 year olds, where the county saw out-migration of 2,437 in 2017 (or 8.0 per cent of all resident in that age range).  From aged 45 onwards the county loses residents to other parts of the UK.  Out-migration is particularly marked among 19 year olds, with 2,002 leaving the county in 2017, the most common destinations being the university towns of Nottingham (159), Southampton (117), Oxford (97), Birmingham (91), County Durham (80), Portsmouth (79) and Bristol (77).  There is net out-migration to other parts of the UK for all ages from 47 with the top destinations for residents over 60 being dominated by neighbouring districts, but also including Scotland, Cornwall, Wiltshire, New Forest, East Devon, West Dorset and South Somerset.

Chart 1: Buckinghamshire’s domestic net migration by age, 2017

Source: MYPE, ONS, 2018

At 20.5 per cent, residents aged 0-15 make up a higher share of Buckinghamshire’s population than in any other county council, ranking 6th among LEPs.  In 2017, the number of Buckinghamshire residents in this age group rose by 0.9 per cent (980), taking the increase over the last five years to 6,334 or 6.1 per cent, the 3rd highest increase among county councils, ranking 7th among LEPs.  Residents aged 65 and over rose by 1.4 per cent in the last year and have risen 12.1 per cent since 2012, more than double the county’s rate of growth and almost five times the rate of working age population increase.  Over the last five years, Buckinghamshire has seen a 16.2 per cent (3,945) increase in the number of residents aged 80 and over, the highest rate recorded for both county councils and LEPs.

The number of working age residents (16-64) in Buckinghamshire rose by 480 or 0.1 per cent in 2017, only the 17th highest rate of increase among country council areas, ranking 24th among LEPs.  Working age residents now make up just 60.9 per cent of the county’s residents, well below the 62.9 per cent recorded across Great Britain to rank 13th among county council areas and 26th among LEPs.

Compared to the rest of the country, Buckinghamshire has an under-representation of people in their 20s and 30s, with a share of residents in those cohorts 23.0 and 7.3 per cent below the national level, with residents in their 60s also underrepresented.  Residents in their 40s are the most over-represented, with 9.7 per cent more than across the country as a whole.  The next most over-represented are residents aged 10-19.  Despite having fallen by 4.0 per cent (3,200) over the last five years, Buckinghamshire has seen the 5th strongest growth in residents in their 40s among LEPs, ranking 3rd among county councils areas. While the growth in residents in their 50s was 11.9 per cent (8,106), this was only the 17th strongest growth among LEPs and 18th among county council areas.

Table 2: Demography by broad age group, 2017

Source: MYPE, ONS, 2018

Chart 2: Buckinghamshire’s comparative demography, 2017 (GB=100)

Source: MYPE, ONS, 2018

The raw data can be found here >

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