The Buckinghamshire Business Barometer is a twice-yearly survey that tracks how local businesses are performing and how confident they feel about the future. It also explores key issues affecting businesses, helping to build a clear picture of the challenges and opportunities across Buckinghamshire. 

The insights gathered are used to inform conversations with government and partners, ensuring the voice of local businesses is represented in decision-making. 

About the latest survey

The latest Barometer is based on responses from 106 businesses, collected between 15th May and 18th June 2026. 

This edition looks at: 

• Rising costs, including the impact of the National Living Wage increase 
• The effect of the US–Israel–Iran conflict on business costs 
• Business innovation activity 
• The key challenges SMEs expect over the next 12 months 

Read the full Business Barometer results

Download the Business Barometer results here (PDF) >

Key headlines

• Trading conditions remain tough 
  • 59% of businesses say conditions are worse than normal 
  • Only 12% report improvement 
  • Net balance: –47% (worse than –32% in Q4 2025) 
• Costs continue to rise 
  • 80% of businesses report cost increases linked to global events 
  • Overall cost pressure over the past year remains high (net balance +77%) 
• Sales and profitability are under pressure 
  • Profits: net balance –52% 
  • Turnover: net balance –25% 
• Businesses are absorbing costs or passing them on 
  • Most common responses:
    - Reducing profit margins (23%)
    - Increasing prices (20%) 
• Confidence is falling 
  • 69% feel less confident about the year ahead 
  • Around 1 in 9 feel more confident 
• Innovation investment remains limited 
  • Only 13% of businesses sought finance for innovation projects

Who responded? 

• 80% of respondents are micro businesses (10 employees or fewer) 
• 78% operate in service industries, 22% in production 
• This broadly reflects the previous survey 

Trading conditions: a tougher environment

Most businesses are facing a more challenging trading environment than usual for this time of year. 

Across key indicators: 

• Sales: Net balance –28% 
• Order books: –30% 
• Turnover: –24% 
• Profits: –52% 
• Workforce: –18% 

While costs remain high, the bigger shift since Q4 2025 is the weakening of demand and activity. 

Two-thirds of businesses have held staffing steady, but: 

• 1 in 4 have reduced their workforce 

The most affected sectors reporting higher costs include: 

• Business services 
• Creative industries 
• Retail (Note: sector samples are small, so interpret with caution.) 

Business confidence 

Following the Autumn 2025 Budget: 

• 69% feel less confident about the year ahead 
• Around 20% are unsure, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty

What’s driving this?

Businesses highlight three main pressures: 

1. Rising costs 

• Energy, fuel, software, transport and premises 
• Increased employment costs (including NICs and wage rises) 

2. Weak demand 

• Reduced consumer spending 
• Delayed business investment affecting B2B sales 

3. Economic and policy uncertainty 

• Changing regulations 
• Perceived lack of support for SMEs 

A smaller group of businesses report increased confidence, typically those in growing sectors (e.g. AI) or expecting new work. 

Key challenges for the year ahead 

Businesses expect the following to be their biggest issues over the next 12 months: 

• Rising costs 
• Weak demand 
• Profitability and viability 
• Recruitment and retention 
• Economic uncertainty 
• Taxation and regulation 

Impact of wage increases 

From April 2026, National Minimum and Living Wage rates increased above inflation.

How are businesses responding? 

• Around 1 in 3 say no changes are planned 
• 3 in 5 expect to make changes, including:  
  • Delaying or cancelling recruitment (34%) 
  • Reducing profit margins (31%) 

Some businesses also report: 

• Reduced hiring or working hours 
• Difficulty increasing staff pay 
• Concerns about long-term viability or closure 

These pressures may reduce job opportunities in both the short and long term.

Impact of the Iran conflict 

The US–Israel–Iran conflict (starting February 2026) led to sharp rises in global energy prices. 

• 80% of businesses saw costs increase 
• Around one-third report no immediate operational changes 

Common responses include: 

• Reducing margins 
• Increasing prices 
• Delaying investment (around 1 in 9 businesses) 

It’s worth noting most responses were collected before energy prices began to ease in mid-June, so some impacts may be temporary.

Innovation activity 

Innovation investment remains modest: 

• 1 in 8 businesses sought funding for an innovation project 
• Projects ranged from software development to premises expansion 
• Funding needs varied, most commonly:  
  • Over £250k (29%) 
  • £50k–£100k (21%) 

Main barriers to funding: 

• Lack of suitable finance options (29%) 
• High interest rates (29%) 
• Limited grant availability (21%) 

Other feedback from businesses 

Additional comments highlight: 

• Some businesses are choosing to exit or retire early 
• Confidence levels described as “through the floor” in parts of the economy 
• Investment is stagnating, particularly in construction 
• Employer National Insurance increases described as “devastating” by some 
• Rising property costs are putting pressure on margins 
• Retailers report increasing theft and limited policing capacity 
• Ongoing challenges with:  
  • Recruitment and retention 
  • Work readiness of young people 
  • Access to funding and support 

There were also calls for: 

• Greater support for apprenticeships and practical career pathways 
• Improved access to grants and business support

Support for your business 

Whatever your current position - whether you’re growing, stabilising, or facing challenges - Buckinghamshire Business First is here to support you. 

Many local businesses have already benefitted from that support. If you’d like to explore how we can help, we encourage you to get in touch.

Email [email protected], call 01494 927130, or fill in a quick online form.