Challenges for Buckinghamshire businesses

The wider economic outlook remains challenging, driven by the impact of the war in the Middle East on global oil prices. The Budget briefing notes that the OBR expects inflation to reach 3.5% in 2027, while the UK Bank Rate is expected to rise to 4.25% by mid-2027. Higher borrowing costs and continued inflationary pressures will likely weigh on business investment and consumer demand, with growth forecasts consequently revised down to only 1% GDP growth in 2027.   

Despite this bleak outlook, various major spending and investment decisions were deferred to the next spending review, with the budget focused on a broader spread of small spending and taxation measures. Indeed, while tax rises were expected, what was announced was not as significant as earlier speculation had suggested and, in places, remains quite vague.  

Employment costs will remain an important concern too. A 3.9% increase in the national minimum wage (NMW) has been announced from next year, including for workers aged 18 to 20, while employer National Insurance contributions remain unchanged. While this is a positive change for addressing the impact of high forecast inflation on living standards, the cost of recruiting has already identified as a barrier to recruitment by businesses. Three in five Buckinghamshire businesses anticipated making changes in response to the previous above inflation increase in NLW / NMW for 2026/27, with the most common response to delay or cancel recruitment activity (34% of businesses), according to results from the Buckinghamshire Business Barometer 2026 Q2. Therefore, this increase could make employers more cautious about taking on additional staff, particularly younger workers. In addition, there were no announced changes to income tax thresholds, or employer National Insurance Contributions, weighing on both real income growth and adding to the costs of recruitment. 

Furthermore, while the decision to freeze fuel duty, and extend the HGV road tax holiday, these may not be sufficient to address the significant impact of fuel price rises on businesses. Indeed, the Buckinghamshire Business Barometer 2026 Q2 identified that some 50% of businesses had experienced a slight rise in costs as a result of the rise in global energy prices, with 30% reporting a significant increase.  

While there was a clear focus from Government to tackle youth unemployment, including a Jobs Guarantee for eligible 18 to 24-year-olds on Universal Credit and £100 million for local apprenticeship services. However, the latter is targeted towards Mayoral authorities, potentially limiting the direct benefit for Buckinghamshire.  

Opportunities for Buckinghamshire businesses 

One of the most immediately positive announcements is the expansion of Small Business Rates Relief, with the threshold at which eligible retail, hospitality and leisure businesses start paying rates increasing from £12,000 to £18,000. This could provide welcome support for businesses facing continued pressures around costs and viability across the county, particularly given Buckinghamshire's large hospitality and SME business population.  

There were also several measures announced which were consistent with BBF’s responses to recent consultations , reflecting local business feedback, such as measures designed to reduce administrative burdens and regulations on businesses, and a stronger emphasis on businesses bidding for major government contracts are also expected to be assessed on their contribution to high-quality jobs, local skills needs and opportunities for young people, improving the ability of local businesses to access these contracts. The additional £5bn finance for the British Business Bank, to support growing businesses, is also welcome. 

However, the benefits will depend heavily on how these measures are implemented. For example, the British Business Bank will have a greater focus on investment in priority sectors, including defence technology, which could limit the relevance of this support to businesses operating outside these sectors. 

The budget also included a strong focus on supporting entrepreneurship, introducing various tax incentives to start new businesses. The Government is tripling the Trading Allowance from £1,000 to £3,000 from 6 April 2027, to help more people make additional income through a side hustle. Plus, a New Founders’ Relief will also become available from April 2027, providing a lower 10% Capital Gains Tax rate on up to £10 million of lifetime gains for founders, but only in qualifying high-growth companies. 

The new British Data Centre covenant could also have particular relevance for the county. The Budget proposes requiring UK data centres to contribute to local economies, skills and infrastructure in return for benefits including easier grid connections and planning preference. This could create opportunities to address local funding gaps for economic development and training, including addressing digital skills shortages identified through the Buckinghamshire LSIP 2026.  

Next Steps 

In November 2026, following the Autumn Budget, Buckinghamshire Business First (BBF) will launch the Buckinghamshire Business Barometer 2026 Q4 questionnaire, giving businesses across the county an opportunity to share their views on the Budget and its implications. 

The survey will also explore other topical issues affecting local employers, including energy and fuel costs, apprenticeships and work experience.  

We encourage all businesses who have been affected by the budget, and wider challenges with energy costs and training, to respond to this survey. Your responses are pivotal to our conversations with MPs, government departments, and the Bank of England, to ensure your voices are heard in the corridors of power.